The Decision Intelligence Handbook

Spis treści książki

• Foreword
• Preface
  • About This Book
    • Decision Intelligence in a Nutshell
    • LLMs, OMG
    • Who Is This Book For?
    • What You Will Learn
    • Assumptions This Book Makes
    • Contents of This Book
  • Conventions Used in This Book
  • Using Supplemental Materials
  • OReilly Online Learning
  • How to Contact Us
  • Acknowledgments
• 1. Introduction
  • Do You Need Decision Intelligence?
  • What DI Does for You and Your Organization
    • From Data to Decisions
    • The Decision Complexity Ceiling
  • What Is DI?
    • Build Your First CDD, Right Now!
    • DI Is About Action-to-Outcome Decisions
    • DI Is About Human-in-the-Loop Decisions
  • Why Data-Driven Decision Makers Need DI
  • Where DI Comes From
    • What DI Is Not
      • DI is not process modeling or project planning
      • DI is not a decision tree
      • DI is not data flow
      • DI is not about decisions that
      • DI is not operations research or linear programming
      • DI is not decision analysis
    • The DI Maturity Model
    • The Shifting Meaning of Decision Intelligence
    • Who Is Doing DI Today?
  • The Nine DI Processes
  • Conclusion
• 2. Decision Requirements
  • Decision Requirements (Phase A): Overview
  • Process A1: The Decision Objective Statement
  • Decision Objective Statement: Net-Zero Emissions Program Use Case
  • Interlude: Convening the Decision Team
  • Making Decisions at Multiple Organizational Levels
  • Balancing Information, Authority, and Responsibility
  • Process A2: Decision Framing
    • Decision Verification
    • Why Decision Framing Is Important
  • Formal Process Description: Process A2, Decision Framing
    • When the Decision Frame Is Wrong
    • Verifying and Framing: Net-Zero Emissions Program Use Case
  • Try It Yourself: Decision Requirements for a Telecom Use Case
    • Framing the Decision
    • Asking About Outcomes and Goals
    • Completing the Decision Framing Worksheet
  • Conclusion
• 3. Decision Modeling: The Decision Design Process
  • The Decision Modeling Phase: Overview
  • Decision Elements
  • Decisions and Time
  • Process B1: Decision Design
  • Formal Process Description: Process B1: Decision Design
  • Divergent and Convergent Thinking
  • The CDD Elicitation Meeting
    • Divergent Thinking: Eliciting Outcomes and Objectives
    • Capturing Out-of-Context Decision Elements in a Parking Lot
    • Convergent Thinking: Refining (Cleaning Up) Outcomes and Objectives
    • Divergent Thinking: Eliciting Levers
    • Convergent Thinking: Refining Levers
    • Divergent Thinking: Eliciting Intermediates (Causal Chains)
      • Causal-ish
      • When CDD elicitation participants disagree
    • Convergent Thinking: Refining Intermediates
    • Divergent Thinking: Eliciting Externals
    • Convergent Thinking: Refining Externals
    • Convergent Thinking: Refining Decision Elements
  • Refining and Expanding Your CDD
    • Levels of Modeling Detail
    • How Do You Know When to Stop Decision Modeling?
  • Decision Design Use Case: Governmental Net-Zero Project
  • Try It Yourself: Decision Design for a Telecom Use Case
    • Brainstorming Outcomes
    • Brainstorming Levers
    • Wiring Known Dependencies Together
    • Initial Refinement
      • Refining levers
      • Refining outcomes
      • Using a why chain
      • Adjusting the decision boundary
      • Making elements measurable and removing directions
      • Drawing more causal chains from actions to outcomes
      • Brainstorming externals and documenting assumptions
    • Iterating On and Publishing the CDD
  • Conclusion
• 4. Decision Modeling: The Decision Asset Investigation Process
  • Deciding to Go Digital
  • Introduction to Process B2: Decision Asset Investigation
    • From Simple to Sophisticated Assets
    • Documenting Decision Assets
      • CDD annotations
      • Recording the decision assets
  • Formal Process Description: Process B2: Decision Asset Investigation
  • Decision Asset Investigation: A Sweet Potato CDD Drives Data Gathering and Research
  • Data for Externals
  • The Puzzle Toy Use Case: The Decision Asset Conversation
  • Try It Yourself: Decision Asset Investigation for the Telecom Use Case
  • Conclusion
• 5. Decision Reasoning: The Decision Simulation Process
  • Decision Reasoning: Phase Overview
  • Decision Simulation Process Overview
    • Why Simulate Your CDD?
      • Better understanding of cause and effect
      • Visualizing which levers and externals affect outcomes the most
      • Identifying missing pieces of the puzzleand accounting for them
    • Deciding Whether to Automate Your Decision Simulation
    • Developing the Simulation Iteratively
  • Formal Process Description: Decision Simulation
  • Creating a Decision Simulation
    • Simplifying the CDD
    • Lever Choices
    • Externals and Assumptions
    • Intermediates and Outcomes
    • Decision Simulation Fidelity
    • Running the Simulation Backward: Decision Models for Optimization
    • Technology Options
    • Simulation Report: Identifying Patterns and Feedback Loops
  • Net-Zero Emissions Use Case: Simulating the Decision Model
  • Visualizing Emergent Patterns in the Puzzle Toy Use Case Simulation
  • Try It Yourself: Decision Simulation for the Telecom Use Case
    • Deciding on a CDD to Simulate
    • Designing CDD Visual Elements
    • Coding the Dependencies
    • Testing Your Simulation
  • Conclusion
• 6. Decision Reasoning: The Decision Assessment Process
  • Introduction to Process C2, Decision Assessment
  • Formal Process Description: Process C2, Decision Assessment
  • Decision Assessment Lenses
    • Baseline
    • Accuracy of the Model, and of Its Parts
    • Bias
    • Sensitivity
    • Uncertainty and Risk
    • Provenance
    • Fidelity
    • Consensus
    • Timing
  • Try It Yourself: Decision Assessment for the Telecom Use Case
  • Conclusion
• 7. Decision Action
  • Decision Action Phase Overview
  • Process D1: Decision Monitoring
  • Formal Process Description: Process D1, Decision Monitoring
    • When Is a Monitored Value Wrong Enough to Matter?
    • What to Monitor
    • When Do You Need to Revisit Your Decision?
    • Decision Monitoring Records
    • Silos, Whack-a-Mole, and the Measurement Effect
    • Case Study: Network Upgrade: When the Decision Is Already Off the Rails
  • Try It Yourself: Decision Monitoring for the Unlimited Usage Plan Use Case
  • Conclusion
• 8. Decision Review
  • The Decision Review Phase: Overview
  • Process E1: Decision Artifacts Retention
    • Legal, Regulatory, and Policy Issues
    • When Should Decision Artifacts Retention Begin and End?
  • Formal Process Description: Process E1, Decision Artifacts Retention
  • Try It Yourself: Decision Artifacts Retention for the Telecom Use Case
  • Process E2: Decision Retrospective
    • One-Time Versus Repeated Decisions
    • Measuring Decision Quality
      • Measuring against ground truth
      • When there is no ground truth for decision outcomes
  • Formal Process Description: Process E2, Decision Retrospective
    • Continuous Decision-Process Improvement
      • Template processes and organizational culture
      • Overcoming organizational resistance to DI process adoption
      • DI maturity
  • Conclusion
• A. Framework for How Data Informs Decisions
• Index

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